Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 4 June 2026, with the settlement depending on the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any specific temperature range, suggesting either incomplete market formation or uncertainty about which bands traders consider plausible given seasonal patterns.

Guangzhou's June climate is well-documented through decades of meteorological records. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows June temperatures in Guangzhou typically peak between 32°C and 35°C, with occasional readings exceeding 36°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges indicates traders have not yet calibrated expectations against these seasonal baselines or are awaiting clearer forecasting data as the settlement date approaches.

The primary catalyst for this market will be seasonal weather patterns and any anomalous atmospheric conditions developing in early June 2026. Traders should monitor China's national weather forecasts released in late May, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, could shift typical June temperatures upward or downward by 1–2°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 4 June, meaning traders will have confirmation from Wunderground's historical records within hours of the day's conclusion.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.