Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 17 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily temperature data through its Climate Information Services, with the "Absolute Daily Max" figure serving as the settlement source once finalised in the Daily Extract records.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are among the year's most consistent. Historical data from the Observatory shows that daily highs in mid-August typically range between 31°C and 34°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C or falling below 30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or uncertainty about which range the market offers. August in Hong Kong coincides with the tail end of the southwest monsoon season, which moderates peak temperatures compared to June and July, when readings more frequently breach 35°C.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any updates to long-range weather models as August 2026 approaches. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 August, though the Observatory typically publishes daily maximum temperatures within 24 hours of the observation date. Unusual atmospheric patterns—such as tropical cyclone activity or unexpected high-pressure systems—could shift outcomes beyond the typical August range, but such events remain difficult to predict more than a few weeks in advance.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.