Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 19 August 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the absolute daily maximum temperature published in the Observatory's Daily Extract climate data, available once the date has passed and official records are finalised.

August is Hong Kong's peak summer season, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 31°C and 34°C. The Observatory's records from recent Augusts show considerable variation: daily highs have reached 35°C on particularly hot days, whilst cooler spells occasionally produce maxima around 30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution or treating this as a placeholder market pending the actual date. Historical volatility in August temperatures means the eventual outcome will depend on monsoon patterns, tropical cyclone activity, and broader atmospheric conditions in the weeks leading to mid-August 2026.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts and upper-air pressure patterns as August approaches, since these systems significantly influence Hong Kong's daily temperatures. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts and seasonal outlooks that provide early signals about expected temperature ranges. Any unusual atmospheric conditions—such as persistent high-pressure systems or approaching typhoons—will alter the probability distribution across temperature bands. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 19 August 2026, after which the Observatory's published data becomes the binding resolution source.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

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