Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 20 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised following the settlement window closure on that date.

August temperatures in Hong Kong are historically consistent within a narrow band. The territory's subtropical climate produces daily maxima in the 31–33°C range during mid-August, with occasional peaks above 34°C during heat waves. The Hong Kong Observatory's 30-year climate normals show an August mean daily maximum of 32.0°C. Extreme outliers—temperatures below 28°C or above 36°C on any given August day—occur infrequently. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are uncertain about which specific temperature bracket will be recorded, rather than doubting whether data will be published.

Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts released by the Hong Kong Observatory in the weeks preceding 20 August 2026. Tropical cyclone activity, monsoon patterns, and upper-atmosphere pressure systems influence daily temperature variation. The Observatory publishes extended forecasts and seasonal outlooks that may signal whether conditions favour above-normal or below-normal temperatures for that date. No scheduled announcements or policy declarations affect this outcome; resolution depends entirely on observed atmospheric conditions and the Observatory's measurement protocols, which remain standardised across years.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.