Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 11 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data for that date is finalised and made publicly available.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are shaped by the onset of the southwest monsoon and pre-typhoon season conditions. Historical data from the Observatory shows June daily maxima typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C during heat waves or when tropical systems approach. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting the settlement window or treating this as a placeholder market pending seasonal forecasting updates closer to the date.

The key dependency is the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule for Daily Extract data, which typically releases within days of the observation date. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website directly for finalised records, as this resolves exclusively through their official measurements rather than alternative weather services. Seasonal forecasting from the Observatory or regional meteorological agencies in May 2026 may provide early signals about whether June conditions favour above or below-average temperatures, though individual daily maxima remain difficult to predict months in advance. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 11 June, allowing minimal time for data publication after the observation period ends.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.