Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s reading for 3 August will hinge on the day’s peak at William P. Hobby Airport, where early-August heat is usually already near the seasonal ceiling. Houston’s August average high is around the low 90s Fahrenheit, and long-range outlooks for the month have pointed to above-normal warmth, which makes a modest overshoot of the usual range more plausible than a cool anomaly[14][17][19]. Recent Houston forecasts for 3 August also leaned hot and mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 90s and only limited storm chances, a setup that typically supports a late-afternoon maximum rather than an early-day cap[3][5][12].

The current 0% implied probability on **YES** looks detached from the weather backdrop rather than from any known structural edge in the contract. In comparable Houston summer setups, the main question is usually not whether the airport reaches the 90s, but whether cloud cover or scattered convection trims the top end by a few degrees; even then, forecast ranges commonly remain well above typical settlement buckets tied to summer heat[8][9][16]. Traders should watch the National Weather Service and local Houston forecasts for changes in thunderstorm coverage, plus any short-term tropical activity that could bring cloudier, wetter air into the region, because that is the clearest route to a lower daily high[12][14][18].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Houston on August 3? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

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Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.