Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport will fall within a specific range measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows 0% probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the actual high will fall outside the specified range. Resolution will depend on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when discrepancies arise between different data presentations on the platform.

Kuala Lumpur's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily temperatures year-round. August historically sits within the monsoon season, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–34°C at the airport station. Historical records from the past decade show August highs rarely exceed 35°C or fall below 31°C, establishing a narrow band of expected variation. The 0% probability suggests the market has priced in a range well outside this historical norm, either significantly higher or lower than typical August conditions.

Traders should monitor actual Weather Underground data releases as 16 August 2026 approaches, particularly any updates to the Daily Observations table which serves as the authoritative resolution source. Unusual weather patterns—including unexpected monsoon intensity shifts or rare high-pressure systems—could push temperatures beyond the historical baseline, though such deviations remain uncommon in Kuala Lumpur's stable tropical climate. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, allowing only morning observations to count towards the final determination.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.