Highest temperature in London on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

London City Airport is expected to face a sweltering June 24, 2026, with the crowd heavily betting that the highest temperature will reach the 36°C threshold. This 79% YES probability reflects a market leaning on the recent surge in UK heat records, where Met Office forecasts have flagged 39°C as a headline maximum for late June, suggesting that near-record highs are becoming the norm rather than the exception[10].

Historically, late June in London has rarely breached 36°C, yet the warm season now stretches from mid-June to early September with average daily highs consistently above 67°F, indicating a shifting climate baseline that makes such temperatures increasingly plausible[5]. The 37% probability assigned to a similar 36°C event on a different date in June underscores that while extreme heat is not yet guaranteed, the trend of rising temperatures is firmly established, framing the current 79% confidence as a rational response to these climatic shifts[1].

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s daily maximum temperature updates and any sudden shifts in southerly wind patterns, which currently sit at 8 miles per hour with high humidity at 88%, as these are the primary catalysts for a heat spike[3]. The market is leaning on the Met Office’s explicit warning of 39°C as a potential headline, a declaration that serves as the key driver for the current probability, making official weather bulletins the most critical source to watch for real-time validation[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in London on June 24? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.