Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market hinges on whether Manila’s highest temperature at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 11 July 2026 falls within a specific Celsius bracket, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to the YES outcome. Historical July data shows daytime maxima in Manila typically reach 31°C, though recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 29.6°C and 32.2°C (84–90°F), with heat indices in Metro Manila potentially climbing to 44°C due to humidity [1][2][3]. The 0% implied probability suggests traders believe the target range is either implausibly high or misaligned with expected conditions, as even extreme heat days in the region rarely breach 35°C at the airport station.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Pagasa and Wunderground’s daily history for RPLL, the official resolution source, as tropical storm activity or sudden shifts in monsoon patterns could alter temperatures [3]. While no scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather, any unexpected heatwave declarations by the Philippine government could shift sentiment if the market were linked to broader climate policy narratives [2]. The key catalyst is the 5 A.M. and 5 P.M. weather bulletins from The Manila Times on 11 July, which will confirm whether the day’s peak temperature aligns with the market’s bracket [6][10]. Given the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, final verification will rely on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for all times on that day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Manila on July 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.