Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s daily high on 7 August has been trading near the upper 80s to around 90°F because the setup looks warm but not extreme, with AccuWeather showing an 87°F forecast high for 8 August and a broader August range of 77°F to 88°F. The market is leaning on that same summer pattern: a warm afternoon, but not a clear signal for a break into the 90s or anything much hotter.[2][3]

That makes the current 0% YES crowd view look conservative when set against comparable late-summer cases, where temperatures often settle in the high 80s unless a stronger ridge or heat dome is in place. The main reference point is the station-specific Weather Underground record for LaGuardia, and on the available history page for 7 August the observed maximum shown is 91°F at John F. Kennedy International Airport Station, which underscores how tightly the market depends on the exact station and table used for settlement.[4][15]

For traders, the key catalyst is not polling or campaign timing in the usual political sense, but the sequence of late-afternoon updates and the final Weather Underground daily observations entry for LaGuardia before the settlement window closes. If nearby forecast runs and official reporting continue to suggest highs around 88°F to 91°F, the market should remain sensitive to whether the day’s peak is locked in below or above the 90°F band; the current pricing on Polymarket already reflects that cluster, with 90–91°F the leading bucket at 37%.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on August 7? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.