Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring an extreme heat wave, with LaGuardia Airport recording record-breaking temperatures that have already surpassed 100°F this week. The city’s official station in Central Park also tied the 100°F mark, confirming a widespread and intense thermal event across the region [1]. This ongoing surge in heat has pushed daily highs well above the seasonal average, creating a context where the 0% crowd-implied probability for any temperature below 88°F appears inconsistent with the immediate atmospheric reality.

Historical data from July in NYC shows that temperatures frequently reach the 88–91°F range, but the current heat wave has already broken multiple records, including the highest midnight temperature ever recorded at LaGuardia at 94°F [5][7]. The average high for July at LaGuardia typically ranges between 73°F and 91°F, yet recent days have seen readings of 102°F and 104°F, indicating that the current conditions are far more severe than the norm [3][6]. Traders should note that the market’s current pricing fails to reflect these unprecedented highs, suggesting a potential misalignment with the observed weather patterns.

Key catalysts to watch include updated National Weather Service forecasts and private model guidance, which currently point to continued warm and humid conditions for July 10 [2]. Additionally, ongoing heat wave reports from FOX Weather and AccuWeather confirm that the extreme temperatures are persisting, with no immediate sign of cooling [5][3]. The market is leaning heavily on the continuation of this heat wave, and any deviation in forecasted temperatures or a sudden shift in weather patterns would be the primary driver for a change in probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on July 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.