Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City faces a mid-July heat check as traders assess the likelihood of extreme temperatures at LaGuardia Airport on 17 July 2026. The market currently assigns zero probability to any outcome above the lowest ranges, yet frontrunner data from Polymarket shows 86–87°F holding 35% implied probability, with 88–89°F at 30%, suggesting the zero-YES reading reflects a specific low-range bet rather than a consensus on cool conditions [1].

Historical records for LaGuardia on 17 July show typical highs clustering between 84°F and 89°F, with several years in the 2010s and 2020s hitting 88°F or higher [3]. The current 0% YES probability appears misaligned with this baseline, as even moderate summer days in NYC frequently exceed 85°F, making the market’s extreme lean toward cooler outcomes an outlier compared to comparable cases.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the New York area, which updates daily and often shifts temperature expectations 48–72 hours before the event [2]. A sudden heatwave declaration or a shift in the jet stream could rapidly alter implied probabilities, especially if the forecast moves above 87°F. The key catalyst is the NWS forecast release, which typically drives the largest intraday moves in weather prediction markets.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on July 17? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.