Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport in New York City is expected to record its highest daily temperature, a critical real-world event that determines the outcome of this weather prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range, likely due to recent heatwave patterns pushing readings higher than anticipated.

Historically, LaGuardia has seen extreme heat, with records reaching 102°F in recent years and 104°F during the 2026 heatwave, as noted by FOX Weather and the New York Times. These comparable cases indicate that temperatures on 6 July 2026 could easily exceed typical July averages, which usually range between 81°F and 99°F, according to AccuWeather forecasts. The 0% probability may therefore reflect a misalignment between trader expectations and the documented intensity of recent heat events.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts, scheduled climate declarations, and any campaign-finance disclosures related to environmental policy, as these could influence market sentiment. A key catalyst is the National Weather Service’s daily temperature updates for LaGuardia, which provide authoritative data on peak temperatures. Recent news from FOX Weather highlights that LaGuardia reached 94°F at midnight on a previous record-breaking day, underscoring the potential for sustained high temperatures. This market leans on the National Weather Service’s real-time data as the primary catalyst for resolving the outcome.

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Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on July 6? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.