Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport’s maximum temperature on 21 June is the key settlement input, and the market is effectively a bet on whether the day’s heat peaks in the low 80s Fahrenheit or runs hotter. The current 0% YES pricing suggests traders are not assigning much weight to an extreme outcome, despite forecasts and live weather coverage pointing to a strong early-summer heat event across New York City.

For context, the city’s June highs often cluster around the low 80s, with recent comparable temperature markets resolving in that band rather than at the seasonal extremes. Weather Underground’s LaGuardia history for 19 June showed a recorded high of 82.3°F, while the National Weather Service’s climatological report for LaGuardia on 21 June listed a maximum of 83°F, which is consistent with a warm but not unusual summer peak. AccuWeather’s June outlook for LaGuardia also showed daily highs mostly in the 70s to mid-80s, reinforcing that the market is leaning on a fairly normal distribution around the low-to-mid 80s rather than a breakout above it.

The main catalyst traders should watch is the actual midday and afternoon heat profile at LaGuardia, since the outcome depends on the single highest reading on the day rather than an average. The strongest short-term driver is the heatwave narrative in local weather coverage, which would support higher tops if sunshine and humidity persist; the clearest hard data will come from the National Weather Service’s site discussion and, eventually, the Weather Underground daily history page used for settlement. For traders, the relevant dependency is whether the airport station briefly touches or exceeds the usual 83–85°F range, because that is where the market’s low-probability tail lives.

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Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on June 21? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.