Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Market context

The underlying event is a forecast for LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, where current models suggest daily highs will sit between 75°F and 89°F, with an average of 83°F[1][2]. This aligns with historical patterns where 26 June typically marks the warmest day in June, averaging 83.6°F, rather than the 22nd[8]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for extreme heat likely stems from the absence of a sustained heatwave in the immediate forecast for that specific date, contrasting sharply with the record-breaking surge seen on 4–5 June 2026, when temperatures hit 96°F[3].

Traders should monitor the development of shortwave activity and warm front boundaries expected to pass through the region in the days leading up to the settlement, as these could trigger scattered thunderstorms that suppress peak temperatures[5]. While a powerful heatwave is forecast for early June, the current outlook for mid-to-late June suggests temperatures will return to seasonal levels, making a sudden spike on 22 June unlikely without a new, unforecasted atmospheric catalyst[3][5]. The market is leaning on the dependency that no major heat dome will form over the Northeast by that date, a scenario supported by the seasonal cooling trend noted after the early June peak.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on June 22? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.