Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the daily high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, which National Weather Service models currently project to sit between 82 and 85 °F. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome in your specific market, the broader prediction ecosystem overwhelmingly favours the 82–83 °F range at 99%, suggesting the current zero probability likely stems from a misaligned contract definition rather than a genuine belief in extreme cold.

Historical data from LaGuardia shows June highs typically ranging from 77 °F to 92 °F, with an average high near 82 °F, making a sub-80 °F reading highly anomalous for late June. Comparable cases from previous years confirm that temperatures below 80 °F in mid-to-late June are rare outliers, reinforcing why the market assigns near-certainty to the 82–83 °F bracket and why a 0% probability for a "YES" outcome (presumably a lower range) appears statistically inconsistent with seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor the official Climatological Report released by the National Weather Service for LGA, which will confirm the maximum temperature recorded at 5:25 AM sunrise and throughout the day. The market is leaning on this definitive weather bureau data as its primary catalyst, rather than speculative campaign finance disclosures or scheduled political debates, which hold no relevance for atmospheric conditions. As noted in the latest NWS product, the maximum temperature for 24 June 2026 is the key metric that will resolve this event, and any deviation from the 82–85 °F forecast would require an unusual shift in regional weather patterns.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on June 24? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.