Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

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Market context

# Market Context: Highest Temperature in NYC on June 6, 2026

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 6 June 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Weather Underground. New York City's June temperatures typically range from the mid-70s to low 80s Fahrenheit, though heat waves can push readings into the 90s. The current 0% probability assigned to the highest bracket suggests traders expect moderate conditions rather than extreme heat on that specific date.

Historical June weather at LaGuardia shows considerable variability. The National Weather Service records indicate that June temperatures in New York have reached 96°F in past years, whilst cooler June days have remained in the 60s. The 30-year climate normal for early June sits around 78°F for highs. Traders should reference the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's seasonal outlooks, typically released monthly, which provide probabilistic forecasts for temperature departures from normal. The current crowd assessment reflects baseline expectations absent any forecast signals pointing toward exceptional heat.

Catalysts for market movement will centre on updated seasonal forecasts released by NOAA in May 2026, which may indicate whether La Niña or El Niño conditions favour above-normal temperatures across the Northeast. Real-time weather models become reliable only within 10 days of the settlement date, so meaningful probability shifts are unlikely until late May. Traders monitoring the Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlooks will gain earliest signals of whether June 2026 tracking toward warmer-than-average conditions nationally.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on June 6? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.