Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will determine which range resolves as correct. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must rely on historical weather data published by Weather Underground for the full calendar day at that location. LaGuardia's official weather station provides consistent measurement across decades, making it the standard reference for New York City temperature records in meteorological and commercial contexts.

New York City's June temperatures typically range between 70°F and 85°F, though extremes occur irregularly. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that temperatures exceeding 90°F on 7 June have occurred roughly once per decade in the region, whilst readings below 65°F are comparatively rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect a specific temperature range to resolve, though the absence of any YES probability indicates either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient liquidity across all available ranges.

Seasonal patterns and long-range forecasts become relevant as June 2026 approaches. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration typically releases 30-day outlooks approximately two weeks before the target date, providing guidance on whether temperatures will trend above or below historical norms. Any significant weather system—Atlantic tropical activity, high-pressure systems, or frontal passages—could shift actual temperatures materially. Traders should monitor NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updates and Weather Underground's historical data consistency as the settlement date nears.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on June 7? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.