Highest temperature in Paris on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 19 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. Settlement occurs at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle through morning observation.

August temperatures at Le Bourget historically range between 15–28°C for daily highs, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific threshold bands available or treating this as a straightforward meteorological forecast rather than a political event. Paris experienced a peak of 42.6°C in June 2022 during an exceptional European heat wave, though August typically sees more moderate conditions than summer peaks in June and July. Comparable August days at the station show clustering around 22–26°C as modal outcomes, with readings above 30°C occurring roughly once per decade.

The primary catalyst remains atmospheric conditions in late August 2026, which depend on Atlantic pressure systems and potential heat dome positioning over continental Europe. Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-August onwards; the UK Met Office and Météo-France issue extended outlooks approximately two weeks before the settlement date. Any significant heat wave warnings for northern France in early-to-mid August would shift probability substantially toward higher temperature bands. Current low crowd probability likely reflects the absence of any current forecast signal rather than confidence in cooler conditions.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Paris on August 19? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.