Highest temperature in Paris on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

# Market Context: Highest Temperature in Paris on August 21, 2026

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 21 August 2026, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The 1% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to remain within a moderate range on that date, likely reflecting August climatology for the Paris region.

Historical August temperatures at Le Bourget show a mean high around 25–26°C, with extremes ranging from 17°C to 38°C across the past four decades. The 1% probability aligns with traders pricing in a scenario where the day falls significantly outside typical late-summer conditions—either an unseasonable cold snap or a severe heat event. August 2003, when Paris experienced temperatures exceeding 38°C during Europe's heatwave, demonstrates that such outliers do occur, though they remain statistically uncommon for any given date.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models and any emerging climate patterns in early August 2026. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) typically issues reliable 10–15 day outlooks by mid-August, which would provide the most actionable signal before settlement. Broader atmospheric conditions—including Atlantic ridge positioning and soil moisture anomalies—will determine whether late summer 2026 tracks toward typical conditions or deviates markedly. Real-time weather data from Météo-France and Wunderground's station network will be the decisive factors as the date approaches.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Paris on August 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.