Highest temperature in Paris on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris’s daytime high on 3 August will be measured at Le Bourget Airport, and the market is effectively asking whether late-summer heat can still produce a notably warm reading. The current crowd-implied probability of 1% YES suggests traders are leaning towards a result below the higher temperature bands, with the settlement source set by Wunderground’s daily history page for Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station.[1]

That pricing is consistent with how August weather markets in Paris usually read: the city’s climatology favours warm afternoons, but the distribution is wider than many expect, with ordinary highs often sitting in the high 20s Celsius rather than at extreme levels.[1][15] Recent Europe-wide heat has also shown how quickly French temperature markets can reprice when hot air masses build, but the present contract is about the single hottest reading on one specific day, not the monthly average.[8][18] In practical terms, a 1% YES implies the market is treating a very hot outlier as unlikely unless the forecast sharpens materially.

The main catalyst is the short-range weather setup over northern France, especially any forecast run that pushes Paris into a heat plume or, conversely, a cooler Atlantic flow before and during the settlement day.[18][20] Traders should watch the latest model updates and the hourly forecast path for Paris-Le Bourget, because the market resolves off the highest temperature recorded during the full day rather than a noon snapshot.[1] There are no obvious political-style event catalysts here, so the lean is on meteorological guidance: if forecasts move decisively towards a hot spell, the 1% pricing can move quickly; if the day is shown to be seasonally mild, the market should remain anchored near the bottom of the range.[18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Paris on August 3? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.