Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is currently experiencing a severe heatwave as Europe suffers brutal temperatures, with France recording its hottest day ever in recent weeks, pushing the 1% crowd-implied probability for an extreme peak on 13 July 2026 into sharp focus[7]. Historical data shows July highs in Paris typically range between 23°C and 25°C, rarely exceeding 31°C, though the 2019 record of 42.4°C at Paris demonstrates the potential for extreme outliers during intense heat events[1][2]. The current low probability reflects the statistical rarity of surpassing such records on a specific date, even amidst a broader warming trend and active red heat-wave alerts issued by Meteo France for dozens of departments[9].

Traders should monitor real-time temperature readings from the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station and updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC today[10]. The market is leaning on immediate atmospheric conditions driven by the ongoing continental heatwave, which has already forced early closures at landmarks like the Eiffel Tower due to record-breaking heat[4]. With Meteo France maintaining red alerts across 54 departments, any sudden spike in local temperatures at the airport station could rapidly shift implied probabilities, making live weather feeds the primary catalyst for price movement before the deadline[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Paris on July 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.