Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

# Market Context: Highest Temperature in Paris on July 24, 2026

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 24 July 2026, with settlement based on historical weather data from Weather Underground. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the outcome distribution or awaiting clarity on which temperature bands are available for resolution.

Paris experiences considerable seasonal variation in summer heat. Historical July data from Le Bourget shows typical maximum temperatures ranging from 24°C to 28°C, though heat waves have driven readings above 35°C in recent decades. The summer of 2022 saw France experience extreme temperatures exceeding 40°C during prolonged heat events. July 2023 and 2024 remained closer to historical norms, with peaks in the 28–32°C range across the Île-de-France region. These precedents establish that outcomes spanning 20–40°C are plausible depending on whether 24 July 2026 falls during a typical summer pattern or coincides with an Atlantic ridge or heat dome system.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting models as July 2026 approaches, particularly outputs from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Seasonal climate outlooks issued in spring 2026 will provide early signals about whether anomalous warmth is expected across western Europe that month. Real-time forecast confidence typically improves substantially within two weeks of the settlement date, allowing traders to refine positions as meteorological certainty increases.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Paris on July 24? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.