Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco's weather on 13 August 2026 will be measured against historical temperature patterns for that date at the airport station. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or a systematic underpricing of certain outcomes. August temperatures in San Francisco typically range from 60–75°F, with the airport station—located near the coast—recording cooler readings than inland areas due to marine influence and fog patterns.

Historical data from the past two decades shows that mid-August highs at San Francisco International Airport rarely exceed 75°F, with most years clustering between 65–72°F. The coolest August 13ths on record have dipped to 58°F, whilst the warmest have reached 82°F, though such extremes remain uncommon. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be waiting for clearer seasonal forecasts or have not yet engaged with this specific date's market.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 13 August 2026, as these will provide the most reliable guidance on whether atmospheric conditions favour cooler marine air or warmer inland patterns pushing through the Bay Area. The resolution methodology specifies Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at the airport station as the binding source, which typically records observations at consistent intervals throughout the day. Any unusual heat events affecting California in early August could shift market expectations, though San Francisco's coastal geography typically insulates it from extreme temperature swings.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.