Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the peak daily temperature recorded at São Paulo–Guarulhos International Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently implies a 0% chance of the temperature exceeding the lowest range, suggesting traders believe conditions will remain unusually cool for this date.

Historically, June in São Paulo is the coldest month of the year, with average highs around 22°C (72°F) and average lows near 13°C (56°F)[2]. While the city has recorded extreme heat in other months, such as 38.5°C in November 2023, June temperatures rarely breach 25°C, and the coldest day in the city’s history occurred in July 2021 at 3.1°C[5]. Recent data from mid-June 2026 shows a peak of 78.8°F (26°C) on 22 June, reinforcing that the current 0% probability aligns with typical seasonal patterns rather than an anomaly[3].

Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from Brazil’s National Meteorology Institute (INMET) for any unexpected heatwave forecasts ahead of 30 June, as well as regional rainfall reports that could suppress temperatures[7]. No political catalysts, campaign-finance disclosures, or scheduled debates influence this weather market; the sole driver is atmospheric conditions. The market leans entirely on the natural climate cycle, with INMET’s daily updates serving as the primary source for verifying temperature deviations[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 30? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.