Highest temperature in Seattle on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will record its daily high temperature, which this market will track using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the highest reading logged at the station throughout the preceding calendar day.

Seattle's August climate typically produces highs in the mid-to-upper 70s Fahrenheit, with occasional spikes into the low 80s during heat waves. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that temperatures exceeding 85°F on 16 August are uncommon but not unprecedented; the city has experienced such readings roughly once per decade on this particular date over the past thirty years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are currently pricing in no expectation of extreme heat, which aligns with long-term August patterns for the Pacific Northwest.

Traders monitoring this market should track National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 16 August 2026, as ridge-building high-pressure systems or marine air intrusions will materially shift temperature expectations. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and its Day High & Low summary section—explicitly noted in the resolution criteria—means traders must verify which data source the platform ultimately uses, as discrepancies between automated station readings and manually adjusted summaries occasionally occur. Recent summers have shown increased volatility in Pacific Northwest temperatures, though August 2026 forecasting remains unavailable until closer to the date.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seattle on August 16? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.