Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s 22 July maximum at Sea-Tac is the underlying outcome here, and the market has already priced in a very hot reading: the crowd is effectively split only around the 94–95°F band, with the alternative buckets at 0%. That is a decisive move away from the cooler end of the distribution and suggests traders are leaning on the idea that the day will finish well above normal rather than merely warm.[1]

For context, Seattle’s late-July highs are usually much lower than the upper-90s, so a 94–95°F result sits in a tail event rather than a routine summer outcome. That helps explain why an implied 0% on the lower ranges is so aggressive: once forecasts point to a persistent inland heat signal, markets tend to reprice towards the most plausible upper bucket rather than distribute probability evenly across all possible temperatures.[2]

The main catalyst to watch is whether forecasters keep the heat in place through the full settlement window, since the market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Sea-Tac across the day, not the afternoon headline high alone. Traders will be focused on National Weather Service guidance, local TV forecasts, and any late-breaking updates from AccuWeather or similar outlets as the date approaches, because small shifts in cloud cover, onshore flow, or marine influence can move the final bucket quickly.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.