Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station on 13 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle for Seoul's primary weather station.

Seoul's August temperatures have historically clustered in the 28–34°C range for daily highs, with extreme heat events pushing into the mid-to-high 30s. The city experienced a peak of 39.6°C in August 2018 during an exceptional heatwave, though such extremes occur roughly once per decade. Most August days at Incheon settle between 29–32°C, making the current 0% implied probability for higher ranges a reflection of baseline seasonal expectations rather than any specific forecast anomaly.

The primary catalyst for temperature movement will be real-time meteorological data as August 2026 approaches. Long-range forecasting models become reliable only 10–14 days before the target date; traders should monitor updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration and Weather Underground's extended outlook in early August. Any developing heat dome or tropical system affecting the Korean peninsula in that window could shift probabilities materially. Seasonal climate patterns—including the East Asian summer monsoon phase and Pacific typhoon activity—will shape conditions, though these remain inherently uncertain at the two-year horizon.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.