Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 14 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders are pricing expectations for a specific summer day in Seoul's metropolitan region roughly eighteen months ahead.

Seoul experiences pronounced seasonal temperature variation. August historically ranks amongst the warmest months, with daily highs typically ranging between 28–32°C at Incheon Airport, though extreme heat events occasionally push readings above 35°C. The city's twenty-year August average sits near 29°C. The 0% implied probability suggests the crowd currently assigns negligible odds to any particular temperature bracket, likely reflecting the inherent difficulty in forecasting weather conditions nearly two years in advance and the granular nature of temperature-range resolution criteria.

Traders monitoring this market should track long-range climate forecasts issued by the Korea Meteorological Administration and seasonal outlooks from international bodies such as NOAA, which typically become more refined as August 2026 approaches. Historical patterns show that East Asian summer temperatures correlate with broader Pacific oscillations including the East Asian summer monsoon strength and potential El Niño or La Niña conditions. Near-term catalysts include seasonal climate pattern announcements in spring 2026 and any significant shifts in global sea-surface temperature anomalies that might influence regional weather trajectories. The specificity of resolution methodology—requiring Daily Observations data rather than summary highs—means settlement hinges on precise instrumental readings rather than rounded figures.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.