Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to establish the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 16 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the uppermost range bracket, though the specific threshold remains unspecified in available market documentation.

Seoul's August climate presents consistent thermal patterns. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows Incheon typically records daily highs between 28–32°C during mid-August, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The 2018 heat wave pushed temperatures to 34.5°C in Seoul; the 2022 summer saw multiple days exceeding 33°C across the region. August represents the warmest month in Seoul's annual cycle, driven by the North Pacific high-pressure system and moisture from tropical systems. These precedents establish the plausible range for any given 16 August reading.

Traders monitoring this market should track the East Asian summer monsoon forecast and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August 2026, as both significantly influence Korean peninsula temperatures. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes monthly outlooks and seasonal forecasts that typically become available 3–4 weeks ahead. Weather Underground's data quality at Incheon Airport—a major international station with consistent instrumentation—remains reliable, though traders should verify the specific temperature bracket definitions before settlement approaches. No scheduled meteorological events or policy changes affect this market's resolution mechanics.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 16? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.