Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 19 August 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately contain the day's peak reading.

August temperatures in Seoul historically cluster in the 28–34°C range, with extreme heat events pushing readings above 35°C occurring roughly once per decade during the summer monsoon season. The 2018 heat wave saw Seoul record 39.6°C on 1 August, whilst more typical August highs settle around 29–31°C. Incheon, situated on the coast, generally runs 1–2°C cooler than central Seoul due to maritime influence, placing the modal expectation around 27–30°C for a standard August day. Historical variance across individual August dates is substantial; traders should reference Korea Meteorological Administration records and seasonal patterns rather than assuming mean values.

The critical dependency is the East Asian summer monsoon's intensity and timing in mid-August 2026. Tropical systems, high-pressure systems from the Tibetan plateau, and moisture flows from the Pacific all influence whether conditions favour typical summer heat or cooler, wetter patterns. Traders should monitor weather forecasts from late July onwards and track any official alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heat warnings or unusual atmospheric conditions in the fortnight preceding 19 August.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.