Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 21 August 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with resolution determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle at the airport station.

August represents Seoul's peak summer season, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 28–32°C at Incheon. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be miscalibrated or reflect uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Comparable August readings from 2015–2024 show the airport station recording temperatures above 30°C on roughly 70% of days during this month, with extremes reaching 34–35°C during heat waves. The specific reliance on Incheon's airport readings—rather than central Seoul figures—matters: the coastal location moderates temperatures slightly compared to the city centre.

Traders should monitor long-range forecasting models from late July onwards, particularly the Asian summer monsoon patterns and any tropical systems affecting the Korean peninsula. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended outlooks by early August. Recent climate data from 2023–2024 shows increasing frequency of sub-30°C August days at Incheon during monsoon-influenced periods, though heat dome events remain common. The exact resolution hinges on Weather Underground's data capture methodology at the airport station, making historical consistency with that specific source a critical reference point for calibrating probability bands.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.