Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against predefined Celsius ranges. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, requiring the historical weather record to be finalised and cross-referenced against Wunderground's archive data before resolution occurs.

Seoul's early-to-mid June climate typically ranges between 20–28°C, though heat waves can push daily highs into the low 30s. Historical records from the past decade show that temperatures exceeding 30°C on this date occur in roughly one year out of every three, whilst readings above 32°C are considerably rarer. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation below the lowest available range, though this may reflect uncertainty about which specific temperature bands the market operator has defined rather than confidence in unusually cool conditions.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's resolution is the accuracy and timeliness of Wunderground's historical weather database for Incheon station on the settlement date. Traders should monitor whether the data source updates reliably in the hours following 12:00 UTC on 11 June, as delays or corrections could affect resolution timing. Secondary considerations include any operational disruptions at Incheon station that might interrupt temperature recording, though such events are uncommon. Recent meteorological forecasts for June 2026 are not yet available; traders will gain actionable information only as the date approaches and seasonal weather patterns become clearer.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.