Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 12 June 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station. The current 0% probability assigned to the YES outcome suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a particular temperature range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the available brackets.

Seoul's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical averages around 24–26°C for daily highs, though readings regularly exceed 28°C during heat waves. The 0% probability on YES likely reflects the market's structure rather than meteorological certainty; traders may be concentrated in alternative temperature bands, leaving this particular range unpriced. Comparable June days at Incheon show considerable variance—the station has recorded highs ranging from 18°C during cooler years to 32°C during early heat events, establishing a wide historical envelope for the settlement date.

Traders monitoring this market should track East Asian weather patterns emerging in late May 2026, particularly the positioning of the Pacific high-pressure system and any Tibetan anticyclone development that typically drives Korean peninsula temperatures upward. The Korea Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecasts, released progressively closer to 12 June, will provide the most actionable data; seasonal monsoon onset timing and any tropical cyclone activity in the region could substantially shift temperature expectations. Current illiquidity at 0% suggests the market may sharpen considerably once weather models converge within the final fortnight before settlement.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.