Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul’s late-morning temperature is the key live input here, with the market ultimately resolving to the highest reading recorded at Incheon Intl Airport Station on 21 June, not the citywide headline high. At 06:00 UTC, the crowd is still pricing in an outcome below the upper end of June norms: the current market on Polymarket shows 27°C as the frontrunner at 37%, with 26°C next at 29%, while broader June climatology for Seoul points to average highs in the mid-20s Celsius rather than extremes.[1][2][4]

The historical frame is straightforward: June in Korea is a warm, humid shoulder-to-monsoon month, and normal highs around Seoul typically sit near 26°C, with rain and cloud cover often muting peaks. That makes a 0% YES price for a higher threshold especially sensitive to one-hot-day spikes or a cooler, overcast day. Recent public guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicates daytime highs are measured over the 9 AM to 5 PM window, so the decisive catalyst is not the early-morning reading but whether heating builds during local afternoon hours.[5][7]

Traders should watch the short-range KMA forecast, any sudden shift in cloud cover or precipitation timing, and whether Seoul turns into a dry, sunny pocket versus a rain-cooled one. The market is leaning mainly on the day-ahead temperature profile rather than any political-style catalyst: there are no scheduled debates or declarations here, only the weather evolution itself, with the practical dependency being whether afternoon convection limits the station’s final high. AccuWeather’s June outlook and other seasonal guides both suggest highs in the high-20s Celsius are plausible, but the realised value will hinge on what actually materialises at the airport station by the close of the settlement window.[2][3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.