Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

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Market context

Seoul experiences early summer conditions by early June, with the East Asian monsoon season beginning to influence regional weather patterns. Historical data from Incheon International Airport—the official measurement station for this market—shows June daily highs typically range between 23°C and 28°C, though temperatures can occasionally exceed 30°C during heat waves or when warm air masses push northward from the Pacific. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the resolution mechanics or expect a narrow temperature band to dominate settlement.

June 4th falls within a transitional period when Seoul's weather becomes increasingly variable. The Korea Meteorological Administration issues forecasts approximately ten days in advance, with meaningful updates arriving three to five days before the settlement date. Traders should monitor whether any heat dome systems develop across East Asia in late May, as these can substantially elevate temperatures above seasonal norms. The specific resolution source—Wunderground's historical data for Incheon station—depends on real-time weather station reporting, making the actual recorded high the only relevant outcome rather than forecasted values.

The current market pricing reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus. Without established betting patterns or recent comparable June 4th data points cited in available forecasts, traders lack clear anchors for probability assignment across temperature bands. As the settlement window approaches, actual meteorological conditions will determine outcomes; the market's current state suggests participants are awaiting clearer atmospheric signals before committing capital to specific temperature ranges.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.