Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

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Market context

The settlement of this market hinges on the maximum temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 7 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The resolution will draw from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station and date, with the final reading locked in at 12:00 UTC. Seoul's early June climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with average highs around 26–28°C, though daily variation and weather system positioning can shift actual maxima considerably.

Historical patterns for Seoul in early June show considerable year-to-year variance. Over the past decade, 7 June temperatures have ranged from approximately 20°C to 31°C depending on whether monsoon systems or high-pressure ridges dominated. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or are treating this as a calibration exercise. Comparable early-June dates at Incheon typically see highs between 24–30°C under normal conditions, with outlier heat events pushing toward 32°C or higher when subtropical air masses establish themselves.

The key variable traders should monitor is the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any early-season tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during late May and early June 2026. Meteorological forecasts become reliable only 10–14 days ahead, so meaningful catalyst data will emerge in late May. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks and extended forecasts that may signal whether June 2026 is tracking toward above-normal or below-normal temperatures for the period.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.