Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is currently experiencing mid-summer conditions with forecast models consensusing on peak temperatures between 32°C and 34°C for 13 July 2026, well below the 37°C threshold required for a YES outcome in this market [1]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% reflects this alignment between current meteorological projections and historical norms, as the settlement relies on data from the Pudong International Airport station rather than the city centre [1].

Historical records for Shanghai Pudong International Airport show July as the hottest month, with an average high of 87°F (approximately 30.6°C) and daily highs in July 2026 forecast to range from 86°F to 97°F (30°C to 36°C) [2][3]. While Shanghai has recorded all-time highs near 40.9°C at the Xujiahui station in recent years, such extremes are rare at the airport location and typically require specific atmospheric anomalies not present in the current forecast [5]. The 0% probability is therefore grounded in the statistical improbability of the airport station exceeding 37°C under the prevailing low-to-mid 30s consensus.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July [1]. No scheduled political debates, campaign-finance disclosures, or conventional catalysts influence this weather-dependent market; the sole determinant is the observed temperature at the specified station [1]. The market is leaning entirely on the forecast-model consensus, with no external political or economic events expected to alter the atmospheric conditions before the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.