Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai’s airport temperature will be decided by the day’s high at Pudong International Airport, and the starting point for pricing is that late June there is already a meaningful warm-season baseline. June averages at Pudong typically put daily highs in the upper 20s Celsius, with historical June highs commonly clustering around the high-20s to low-30s rather than the 35°C-plus extremes seen in peak summer.[2][3][7]

That makes a 0% yes price look like a very strong anchoring effect rather than a signal that the market expects cold weather. For context, Shanghai’s summer climate regularly produces highs above 30°C, and the city has recently seen severe heat episodes, including a 40.9°C reading reported by local coverage in the broader Shanghai area.[3][6] Comparable June climatology suggests the market is really about whether the airport reaches a notably hot peak on the day, not whether it stays mild.[2][7]

The near-term catalyst is the live forecast and any shifts in the subtropical summer pattern over eastern China, not a scheduled political-style event. BBC Weather currently shows thundery showers and a high of 28°C for Shanghai Hongqiao on Sunday, which points to a warm but not extreme setup in the region.[1] Traders should watch whether shower activity breaks up cloud cover enough for afternoon heating, and whether updated airport-specific forecasts move towards the low-30s Celsius; those changes matter more than the current zero-implied price.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.