Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 8 June 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the day's peak reading at Pudong International Airport Station. Early June in Shanghai typically sits within a warm-to-hot range, with historical highs clustering between 28°C and 34°C depending on atmospheric conditions and monsoon influence. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific threshold being tested or treating the outcome as highly dispersed across multiple possible ranges rather than concentrated in any single band.

Historical records from Shanghai's meteorological station show considerable variability in early June temperatures across different years. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on or near 8 June ranged from 26°C to 35°C, with most years settling in the 30–33°C zone. This spread reflects the transition period between spring and summer monsoon patterns, where subtropical high-pressure systems compete with moisture-laden air masses. The current flat probability distribution indicates the market lacks conviction about which specific temperature bracket will materialise, typical for weather markets where outcomes depend on real-time atmospheric dynamics rather than announced events or scheduled declarations.

Traders monitoring this market should track weather forecasts released in the days immediately preceding 8 June 2026, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and international models tracking monsoon progression. Wunderground's historical data for Shanghai Pudong will serve as the settlement source, making consistent measurement methodology the key verification point. No scheduled announcements or policy declarations will influence this outcome; resolution depends entirely on meteorological conditions.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 8? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.