Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows July in Singapore typically features daily highs around 31–32°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 30°C or exceeding 33°C [4]. Over the past decade, peak temperatures in early July have consistently clustered near 32°C, with 37°C being an extreme outlier recorded only once in 40 years [9]. Given this stability, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above 32°C appears inconsistent with climatic norms, suggesting the market may be mispricing the baseline likelihood of a 32°C day.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from the Meteorological Service Singapore and global climate models as they refine predictions for early July 2026, particularly any signals of intensified heatwaves linked to rising ocean temperatures [3]. While no scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence temperature, broader climate trends—such as the record-breaking global heat of July 2024, which was the warmest July in 120,000 years [2][3]—could elevate Singapore’s peak temperatures slightly above historical averages. The market is leaning on the catalyst of persistent regional heatwaves, with Wunderground serving as the definitive resolution source [8]. Any deviation from the 32°C expectation would likely stem from an anomalous heat surge, not routine variability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.