Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s temperature market hinges on the day’s **peak reading at Haneda Airport**, with the settlement window capturing only the highest value recorded before noon UTC. The crowd sits at **0% YES**, which is consistent with a contract that is highly contingent on a single weather outcome rather than a broader seasonal trend.

The historical frame is straightforward: early August in Tokyo is usually hot, but the market references an *extreme* rather than an average. Tokyo’s August average high is around **31°C to 34.6°C** depending on the series used, while the city’s record highs are far above that, reaching **37.3°C** in the historical data cited by weather-history aggregators[2][10][11]. That means the contract only resolves YES if the airport sees an unusually strong heat spike, not merely a typical summer afternoon. August is also described as the hottest period of the year in Tokyo, which helps explain why the market is being priced as a weather-extremes event rather than a routine seasonal one[3][10].

For traders, the key catalyst is the **day-of temperature evolution** at Haneda rather than any scheduled announcement or political-style event; the relevant driver is whether the morning heats rapidly enough to push the daily maximum into the target range before the settlement cut-off. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows Tokyo daily highs generally running in the **low- to upper-80s Fahrenheit** range, implying a baseline around the low 30s Celsius, but that still leaves room for a higher or lower-than-expected midday spike[1][4]. The decisive variable is therefore the real-time weather trajectory and any heat warning coverage from major weather outlets, not a calendar of announcements.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.