Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, the official resolution source for this market. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the peak heat recorded during the morning and early afternoon hours in Japan's summer season.

August temperatures in Tokyo typically peak between 32°C and 35°C, with occasional readings exceeding 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that mid-August often represents the warmest period of the year in the capital, though extreme heat events remain variable year to year. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or expect unusually cool conditions for that date in 2026.

Key variables affecting the outcome include broader Pacific weather patterns, the presence of typhoon systems in late July or early August, and urban heat island effects specific to Haneda's location. Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, as seasonal outlooks typically become more precise two to three weeks before the settlement date. Any significant tropical cyclone activity or unusual pressure systems over the region in the preceding weeks would shift expectations materially. The resolution methodology's explicit reliance on the Daily Observations table rather than summary high-low figures means traders must verify which data source Weather Underground prioritises during any discrepancies.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.