Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?

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Market context

# Market Context: Highest Temperature in Tokyo on August 16, 2026

Tokyo's peak temperature on 16 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. August is Tokyo's hottest month, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 32–35°C, though extreme heat events have pushed readings above 37°C in recent years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature threshold being tested or expect moderate conditions rather than exceptional heat.

Tokyo experienced a record high of 41.1°C in July 2023, demonstrating the city's vulnerability to intense summer heat waves. However, daily peaks in mid-August have historically clustered in the 33–36°C range over the past decade. The Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts, typically issued in early August, will provide the most reliable guidance on whether 2026 August conditions track toward above-average or near-normal temperatures. Traders should monitor JMA outlooks released in late July and early August, as these influence expectations for the entire month.

The resolution hinges on precise measurement from Haneda's official station rather than summary figures elsewhere on Weather Underground. Haneda's location near Tokyo Bay can produce slightly different readings than central Tokyo stations. Traders should verify the exact temperature bands offered in this market's resolution criteria, as the difference between a 34°C and 35°C threshold could determine outcome, particularly if August 16 falls during a typical mid-summer pattern rather than an exceptional heat event.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.