Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s summer heat is reaching its seasonal peak as traders assess the likelihood of extreme temperatures at Haneda Airport on 13 July 2026. The current 0% YES probability for any specific high-temperature outcome reflects a market that has not yet converged on a definitive range, despite July typically seeing highs between 31°C and 33°C at this location [1][4]. Historical data shows Tokyo Haneda’s average July high is 36°C (86°F), with recent years recording peaks up to 38°C, though the all-Japan record of 41.2°C was set in Hyogo Prefecture in late July 2025, not Tokyo [1][5].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecasts released each morning, which often shift temperature expectations by 1–2°C within 24 hours [4]. The market is currently leaning on the 31°C outcome, which Polymarket assigns a 37% probability, followed by 32°C at 24% [2]. A key catalyst is the scheduled release of the weekly heat advisory from Tokyo’s municipal government, expected before 10 July, which could signal whether a heatwave is imminent. Recent climate disclosures from the Japanese Environment Ministry also highlight rising summer extremes, reinforcing the plausibility of temperatures exceeding 30°C [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.