Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s late-July weather is usually defined by **heat, humidity and occasional rain**, with average daytime highs in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius and many summer days reaching above 30°C. July is also festival season, and the calendar for 24–25 July includes major events such as **Gion Matsuri’s final parade on 24 July**, **Tenjin Matsuri on 24–25 July**, and **Sumida River Fireworks on 25 July**, all of which underscore how firmly midsummer has arrived in the region.[1][2][5]

That background helps explain why a sub-30°C outcome would be unusual if conditions stay near seasonal norms, even though showers and humidity can cap temperatures on some days. Comparable July guides for Tokyo describe a month with highs often around **27–35°C**, and note that the early-to-mid part of the month can sit closer to **30°C** before the hottest late-July period develops.[2][6] The market’s current 0% YES price therefore looks more like a very pessimistic outlier than a consensus view on Tokyo summer climatology.[2][5]

The main catalyst to watch is the **same-day synoptic weather setup** rather than any political-style event calendar: high pressure, cloud cover, rainfall, or a typhoon track could materially shift the day’s maximum at Haneda. Traders should focus on the latest Tokyo forecasts and official hourly updates into the afternoon local time, because the settlement is tied to the **single highest temperature recorded for the day** at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, not a city average.[3][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.