Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the peak temperature recorded across the full calendar day at this major metropolitan weather station.

July temperatures in Tokyo typically peak in the 32–35°C range during the summer monsoon season, though extreme heat events have pushed readings above 37°C in recent years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available in this market's resolution categories, or the market structure itself remains unclear to participants. Historical precedent from Tokyo's July records shows considerable year-on-year variation; the Japan Meteorological Agency recorded 35.1°C on 28 July 2018 and 34.6°C on the same date in 2019, indicating that mid-30s outcomes are baseline expectations rather than outliers.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather patterns and any anomalies in the Pacific typhoon season, which can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase entering mid-2026 will influence broader East Asian temperature patterns. Real-time forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency typically become reliable five to seven days before the settlement date, providing a final catalyst for position adjustments as the actual weather window approaches.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.