Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's peak temperature in Celsius across all daylight and overnight hours at the airport's official monitoring station.

Tokyo's June temperatures typically range between 23°C and 30°C, with occasional peaks above 32°C during early heat waves. Historical records show that mid-June can bring either early rainy season conditions (tsuyu) or premature summer heat depending on atmospheric patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a baseline reference market with minimal conviction on any specific temperature band at present.

The primary catalyst for movement will be meteorological forecasts issued in the weeks preceding 8 June 2026. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks, typically released monthly, will signal whether early summer heat or monsoon moisture dominates the period. Real-time weather models from mid-May onwards will narrow the range substantially, as synoptic patterns become more predictable within a two-week window. Traders should monitor whether Pacific high-pressure systems establish early or whether the tsuyu front stalls over central Honshu, as these competing patterns drive temperature extremes in opposite directions.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.