Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 16 August 2026 will be measured at the airport weather station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders have not yet engaged with pricing this event or expect settlement data complications.

August is Wellington's coldest month, with historical daily highs averaging 11–12°C. The city's maritime climate produces narrow temperature ranges; daily swings exceeding 10°C are uncommon. Comparable August days at Wellington International Airport typically peak between 8°C and 15°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 18°C. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects either minimal trading activity on a low-stakes weather market or uncertainty about data availability from the specified Weather Underground source at settlement time.

Traders should monitor Weather Underground's data continuity for Wellington Intl Airport Station through August 2026, as resolution depends entirely on that platform's Daily Observations table rather than alternative meteorological sources. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 August, which occurs during Wellington's early morning hours; temperature readings will continue until local midnight. Any disruption to Weather Underground's data collection or archiving could trigger resolution disputes. Standard Southern Hemisphere winter weather patterns—including potential cold fronts or rare warm spells—will determine the actual outcome, but the market's current inactivity suggests traders are awaiting clearer catalyst events or improved liquidity before positioning.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.