Highest temperature in Wellington on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market assesses the likelihood of the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 6 July 2026 falling into a specific degree range, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to the "YES" outcome. This reflects a near-certainty that the temperature will not match the implied threshold, likely because historical data suggests July is the coldest month in Wellington, with average highs hovering around 12°C (54°F) and lows near 7°C (47°F)[2]. Past records for early July in Wellington rarely exceed 15°C, making any outcome significantly higher than this range statistically improbable without an extreme, unforecasted weather event[1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any sudden shifts in temperature readings as the day progresses[7]. While no political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather patterns, traders must watch for sudden atmospheric anomalies such as severe thunderstorms or rapid pressure changes, which could alter temperature trajectories unexpectedly[3]. The market is leaning on the catalyst of immediate meteorological data rather than external political events, with the primary risk being an unanticipated spike in temperature that contradicts the seasonal norm. Given the current 0% probability, the market implies that the temperature will remain within the expected cool range for early July in Wellington.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 6? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.